Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
